Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
